Relay_Station / Zone_39
MARKET
24.05.2026
Bitcoin Rebounds Above $77,000 as Trump Signals Iran Peace Deal
Trump's post, which also alluded to positive calls with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, Turkey, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, directly triggered the upward momentum. The proposed peace Memorandum of Understanding, emphasizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, quickly resonated with market participants. The Strait’s strategic importance for global oil shipments means any de-escalation in the region has significant economic implications, directly impacting inflation expectations and, consequently, risk assets like Bitcoin.
This swift recovery reversed a period of significant downward pressure. Bitcoin had broken below the psychological $75,000 level and even dipped to $74,720 on Friday, May 23, marking its lowest point in May. This earlier decline, extending losses over nine consecutive trading days, was driven by a confluence of regulatory, monetary, and geopolitical risks. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chairman, coupled with record-low consumer sentiment and climbing rate hike odds above 70% for year-end, created a bearish environment.
The preceding sell-off triggered substantial liquidations across the crypto market. Over $100 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour as Bitcoin fell below $75,000. Broader market data showed total liquidations nearing $1 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for $378 million, of which $353 million were long positions, highlighting the leveraged nature of the market and its sensitivity to negative catalysts. The anticipation of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, as reported by CBS News, had initially spurred fears of spiking oil prices and further inflation, which would likely push the Fed towards rate hikes rather than cuts, a scenario detrimental to crypto valuations.
Further emphasizing the market's focus on the geopolitical landscape, prediction markets on Polymarket saw intense activity surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Traders have placed over $154 million in bets on whether such a permanent peace deal will be reached by the end of 2026. The contract titled “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?” launched on April 8, 2026, and has accumulated significant volume across various date-based outcome contracts, with the December 31, 2026, contract holding 91% odds, reflecting broad market belief in a resolution within the year.
This Polymarket activity underscores how closely the crypto market watches real-world geopolitical developments, translating complex international relations into actionable trading signals. The immediate 1.5% spike in Bitcoin's value upon Trump’s statement serves as a stark reminder of this interconnectedness. When traditional finance gauges global stability through bond yields and currency fluctuations, the digital asset market often reacts with amplified volatility, both up and down.
The rebound to $77,000 is technically significant. After trending lower from its January high of $82,874 through February and March, Bitcoin had formed a base before pushing towards $80,000 in early May. Saturday’s dip tested critical support levels, including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $74,125 and a nearby horizontal support area that had held during previous tests. The bounce from this region was crucial for maintaining the short-term market structure, preventing a deeper cascade towards the 0.5 retracement at $71,423.
As Bitcoin now trades around $76,973, it approaches the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $77,469 as the next immediate resistance level. A sustained daily close above $77,469 would be a more constructive signal for continued upward movement. However, the market remains highly susceptible to further geopolitical shifts and macro data, particularly any developments regarding the announced peace understanding. The rapid swing in Bitcoin's valuation within mere hours illustrates the enduring influence of global events on digital asset prices. How long can this newfound optimism hold amidst ongoing macro uncertainties?
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